putin’s regime was preparing for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, both from a military point of view and from a financial and economic point of view.
Ihor Umanskyi, Ukrainian politician, economist, ex-minister of finance, emphasized this during the discussion “Finances of a terrorist country: how to confiscate?”
“When russia seized Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk in 2014, it was clear that a full-scale war could not be avoided. If war is imminent, delaying the start is just giving the enemy a chance to build up and prepare. Has putin’s regime prepared for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine? So. They were preparing both from a military point of view and from a financial and economic point of view, – said Ihor Umanskyi. – What do we have as a result of 2022? So, at first, after the introduction of sanctions, the russian system had to readjust its work and there was a certain subsidence. But according to the results of the year, the surplus of the balance of payments increased twice, the external debt decreased by more than 100 billion, the unemployment rate decreased, inflation was a little more than 10%, the ruble exchange rate strengthened. russia was preparing, including for the introduction of sanctions, they were not afraid of sanctions.”
Was Ukraine preparing for a full-scale invasion?
“This is the most important thing, the time will come and we will ask. It looks like she didn’t prepare. Not from a military, financial, or information point of view, and not from any point of view. Moreover, our leadership assured us that there was no need to prepare for war. It is necessary to reduce defense expenditures, as a result, to finance large-scale construction, etc., says the ex-minister. – It is necessary to draw conclusions from the state in which Ukraine approached the beginning of the war. The only thing that putin did not take into account is the reluctance of ordinary Ukrainians, both civilians and, most importantly.”
Umanskyi emphasized that we must realize that as long as russia exists in its current form, its territorial claims to Ukraine will not disappear.
“How to prepare? Exclusively calling on Western countries for help, before the inclusion of Ukraine in NATO, will not provide a full measure of security against this invasion. Exceptionally strong Ukraine with a powerful military complex and a combat-ready army is capable of restraining the aggressive intentions of any neighbor who will try to seize our territory,” he said.
As for the sanctions, the expert emphasized that it is necessary to understand that this is, first of all, a political decision and the identification of the political will of certain countries in relation to the aggressor country.
“The Social West made a political decision for itself. The package of sanctions that was adopted against russia today is the most powerful in the world, which was adopted against any country under any circumstances. But I repeat, russia was preparing for this, on the other hand, it is a political measure, which from the point of view of effectiveness is restrained by many points. The first is the economic interests of the subjects of each of these countries. Many of them do not want to lose the 160 million sales market of the russian federation. It hurts them. The war is somewhere over there, in some imaginary Ukraine, and their business is here and now. And most are not ready to reduce their own income. It is necessary to realize this, whether we like it or not, – says Umanskyi. – The most important question. And what are the sanctions for? In our understanding, waiting is a weakening of the aggressor country’s ability to take further aggressive actions. But here it is necessary to understand that russia has at least four sources for financing military aggression:
- the National budget,
- the funds of the central bank,
- the funds of the banking system and relevant state and non-state funds, so-called pocket boxes for various needs
- the funds of the huge public sector, which also can, will and are used to finance the corresponding needs of the central government of the kremlin.
That is why it is necessary to fight in all four directions.”
The expert also emphasized that in the confrontation with the aggressor, Ukraine should increase the military capabilities of Ukraine for resistance on the one hand, and on the other hand, it is necessary to limit the capabilities of the russian federation to manufacture especially high-precision technological weapons.
“And here precisely, economic and trade sanctions would be very useful for Ukraine. But are they possible, will they be effective without the involvement of China, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other so-called quiet harbors, through which possible entry-exit points for financing any purchases, I emphasize any purchases. And India, by the way. Most of the purchases of military, first of all, BC ammunition are carried out through Indian companies.”
Ihor Umanskyi also emphasized that the best sanctions against the russian federation are weapons for the Ukrainian army.