The aggressor country receives $6 billion from the sale of oil to the EU through the Druzhba pipeline, which passes through Ukrainian territory. This money is then used to produce missiles and Shahed drones, but this is not the only reason to stop this transit.
On 1 January 2025, at 7 a.m., a truly epoch-making event and a huge step towards our victory took place — after more than 50 years, Ukraine stopped the transit of Russian gas through its territory. Throughout the years of independence, Russia has been using this gas noose against Ukraine. It has been receiving preferences for its companies, buying up Ukrainian enterprises for a song, exchanging our gas debts for planes and missiles that are now destroying our cities. It extended its military presence in Crimea, which later became an element of the rapid occupation of Ukrainian territory, enriching oligarchs, bribing political parties. This ultimately led to this genocidal war. Since the beginning of the military aggression, European countries have also been subjected to Russian gas blackmail for their support of Ukraine, in particular, by reducing gas supplies and refusing to pump gas into European gas storage facilities. Europe has survived, and the time has come to cut off transit.
But by breaking the gas tentacle of the Kremlin octopus, Ukraine did not break the oil tentacle, through which the aggressor continues to feed its military machine to kill Ukrainians and destroy our cities. On 10 January 2025, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that it was impossible to stop transit. He said that transit could be used as a reason to hold the country accountable for stopping the uninterrupted supply of oil, in particular to Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, and to impose appropriate financial conditions after international arbitration. However, this does not correspond to reality: on 24 June 2024, Ukraine imposed tougher sanctions against the Russian company Lukoil, which transited oil through the Druzhba pipeline. On 1 August, the European Union rejected Hungary and Slovakia’s concerns about Ukraine’s decision to impose sanctions on a major Russian oil company and has so far rejected their request for urgent consultations on the security of oil supplies. Thus, there are no legal obstacles to stopping oil transit.
Stopping the transit of Russian oil is not only possible, but also critical against the backdrop of possible peace talks, which are being prepared by the Donald Trump team. Ukraine is now actively attacking Russia’s oil infrastructure, with a total of 25 strategic facilities attacked in January, including 4 oil refineries, 4 oil depots, and 2 oil pumping stations. The negative impact of the US sanctions against the Russian shadow fleet imposed by Joe Biden in the second half of January, which are forcing a reduction in oil production, according to Reuters, is gradually increasing. So now Ukraine should stop transit to hit the Russian economy harder and strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position.
In addition to this most compelling reason, there are at least ten other reasons why Ukraine should stop transiting Russian oil right now:
1. Economic blow to the aggressor country
Financing the war: Stopping the transit of Russian oil through Ukraine will be a powerful economic blow to the aggressor. Russia annually receives about $6 billion in revenue from oil exports to the EU through the Druzhba pipeline. These funds are used to finance military operations, including the production of weapons, missiles and attack drones. Restricting export revenues will significantly reduce Russia’s financial capacity to wage war and pursue an aggressive foreign policy. This will increase the budget deficit and make it more difficult to finance military spending. The loss of billions of dollars would impede the modernisation and production of new weapons, reducing the ability to continue fighting. Stopping the transit will also support Western sanctions aimed at limiting funding for military programmes and increase the economic isolation of the aggressor. Thus, it will become an effective lever for economic pressure on Russia, limiting its military capabilities and accelerating the end of the war.
2. Political pressure on the Kremlin’s allies in the EU
Slovakia and Hungary: The main beneficiaries of transit are countries with pro-Kremlin, anti-Ukrainian policies. Stopping the transit of Russian oil through Ukraine will create political pressure on Slovakia and Hungary, countries that pursue pro-Russian policies, blocking assistance to Ukraine and its integration into the EU and NATO. Depriving them of access to cheap Russian energy will force them to look for alternatives, reducing their dependence on Russia. It will also call into question the feasibility of the pro-Russian course, causing domestic political pressure and a possible change of position on Ukraine. In addition, stopping transit will signal to other European countries the need for energy independence from Russia, strengthening unity in support of Ukraine.
3. Demonstrating consistency with Ukraine as a partner
Sanctions position: Stopping the transit of Russian oil will demonstrate to the world Ukraine’s consistency in imposing sanctions against the aggressor. This will be a strong indication of readiness for decisive action even in the face of economic losses, such as the loss of transit revenue. This position will demonstrate that Ukraine places national security and international justice above temporary financial gain. Such actions will strengthen Ukraine’s credibility among its Western partners, who also bear economic costs by imposing sanctions on Russia. Ukraine’s consistent sanctions policy will confirm its reliability as a partner capable of making difficult but necessary decisions, which will help to expand international support, including in the political, economic and military spheres.
4. Strengthening of US sanctions and synergistic effect with the EU
Synergistic effect: Stopping the transit of Russian oil through Ukraine will increase the effect of the already imposed US sanctions against Russia. Coordinated actions among Ukraine, the United States, and the European Union will create a powerful combined pressure on the Russian economy that will significantly limit its room for manoeuvre. First, coordinated sanctions will make it impossible for Russia to circumvent restrictions through third countries or alternative supply routes. The loss of access to the European market, which is one of the largest consumers of energy, will significantly reduce the volume of Russian oil exports. So, it will negatively affect the aggressor’s revenues. Second, Russia will have fewer opportunities to diversify its markets. The West’s sanctions policy will limit its ability to enter into new contracts with other countries, as these countries will not want to risk falling under secondary sanctions imposed by the US or EU. Thirdly, coordinated actions will create a synergistic effect, amplifying the impact of each individual sanction. For example, if the EU restricts access to its financial markets and the US restricts the use of dollar payments, this will make it much more difficult for Russia to secure foreign exchange earnings from oil exports. In general, the synergy of sanctions imposed by the US, EU, and Ukraine will make economic pressure on Russia more powerful and comprehensive, depriving the aggressor of resources to finance the war.
5. Reducing the EU’s energy dependence on Russia
Energy independence: Stopping the transit of Russian oil through Ukraine will be an important step in reducing the energy dependence of the European Union on Russia. This will be in line with the common strategic goals of Ukraine and its Western partners to reduce the impact of Russian energy on European economies. Europe will be forced to look more actively for alternative energy suppliers, such as the United States, Norway, Qatar, or even develop its own energy resources, including renewable energy. This will strengthen the EU’s energy security, reduce the risks of Russian blackmail, and contribute to the resilience of the European economy in the face of geopolitical instability.
6. Pressure on Russia’s oil infrastructure
Wells mothballing: The cessation of oil transit through Ukraine will have a significant impact on Russia’s oil infrastructure. As a result of the decline in demand for Russian oil, the aggressor will be forced to mothball oil wells, which will significantly increase the cost of their maintenance and restoration. Well mothballing is a complicated and expensive process that requires large financial investments, and their restoration can take a long time. This will reduce oil production in Russia and create additional economic pressure on the oil industry, which is the main source of revenue for the Russian budget.
7. Impact on Russia’s foreign trade balance
Reducing export revenues: The termination of oil transit through Ukraine will lead to a significant reduction in Russia’s export revenues. The loss of foreign exchange earnings from oil exports will increase the trade deficit and lead to economic instability in the aggressor country. Since oil exports account for a significant portion of the Russian budget, a decline in oil exports would cause the ruble to fall. The devaluation of the Russian national currency will increase the cost of imported goods, which in turn will increase inflation in the country and exacerbate the economic crisis.
8. Escalation of economic instability in Russia
Rising inflation: Declining export revenues and the devaluation of the ruble will cause economic instability in Russia. The depreciation of the national currency will increase the cost of imports, especially high-tech equipment and components, leading to higher costs in many sectors of the economy. Rising inflation will reduce the purchasing power of the population, and the budget deficit will force the government to cut social spending or increase taxes. This will lead to a deterioration in living standards, social discontent and escalation of internal tensions in the aggressor country.
9. Increased social pressure in Russia
Deteriorating living standards: The devaluation of the ruble and rising inflation will directly affect the welfare of the Russian population. Declining purchasing power, rising prices for food, medicines and essential goods will lead to a deterioration in living standards. Social discontent may increase due to rising unemployment and cuts in government support programmes. This will create additional pressure on the Russian authorities and may lead to an escalation of protest moods, destabilisation of the domestic situation and undermining public support for the Kremlin’s aggressive foreign policy.
10. Strengthening Ukraine’s negotiating position ahead of potential peace talks
Continuing transit as part of the negotiations: Stopping the transit of Russian oil through Ukraine would significantly strengthen Ukraine’s position in future peace talks. Oil transit is an important economic factor for Russia, and its continuation could be a bargaining chip in the negotiations. Ukraine will be able to use this dependence on Russia to demand the withdrawal of troops from the occupied territories, reparations, and other political concessions. Thus, the termination of transit will become a powerful lever of pressure on the aggressor and strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position in the international arena.
Hence, stopping the transit of Russian oil is not only possible, but also a necessary step to increase economic and political pressure on the aggressor. It will allow Ukraine to undermine Russia’s financial stability, weaken the Kremlin’s allies in the EU, and use this leverage in future peace negotiations. Given the growing impact of international sanctions and strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure, now is the best time for this strategic decision, which brings Ukraine’s victory closer.
Ilya Neskhodovskyi, economic expert at the National Interests Advocacy Network “ANTS”
